Shareholder value analysis of carphone warehouse - Free Essay Example

Sample details Pages: 7 Words: 2115 Downloads: 9 Date added: 2017/06/26 Category Finance Essay Type Analytical essay Did you like this example? The chosen company for our shareholder value analysis is Carphone Warehouse Group Plc. The company has outstanding growth and has a dominant market position. It is the largest independent mobile retailer in Europe. After reviewing the latest Annual reports between 2000 2009, the model is used to calculate the shareholder value minus the estimate of total corporation value. Here are the 10 steps used to calculate the Shareholder value analysis for Carphone Warehouse Group Plc. Step 1: Calculate weighted average Cost of Capital Weighted Average cost of capital (WACC) = Ke * We + Kd * Wd Where, Ke stand for cost of equity Kd stands for cost of debt We stand for weight of equity proportion to total capital structure Wd stands for weight of debt proportion to total capital structure The figure below shows the WACC in detail. Don’t waste time! Our writers will create an original "Shareholder value analysis of carphone warehouse" essay for you Create order step 1 calculate WACC  wacc = ke *we+kd*wd risk free rate = 3.50% FTSE return = 9% beta = 101%  ke = 3.5%(101%*9%-3.5%))  gross debt = 5% tax adjustment = (1-28)  kd = 5%*0.72% =  debt to equity ratio = 20:80  we = 80%  wd = 20%  WACC = (9.6%*80%)+(3.6%*20%) = 8.4% Step 2: Calculate Future Turnover Total turnover for the year = Turnover for the last year + increase (turnover of the last year * growth rate) The assumption of the growth rate was calculated using the previous annual records for the company. This is given in the SVA model and shows to be 24.37% This was then used to calculate an estimated forecast of turnover for the next 7 years. Step 3: Calculate Operating Profit We calculated the average profit margin using the previous 10 years of data; hence using the change in percentage from previous year we used the average of that as our rate of profit margin which is 2.18%. We then used the forecasted turnover from step 2 and multiplied this to the profit margin to calculate the forecasted profits for the next 7 years pre tax. Step 4: Calculate After-Tax Inflow This step was used to calculate the post tax of estimated profits. We got our results by multiplying the pretax profits with the tax rate of 28%; we then subtracted the tax worked out from the post tax profit to get the post tax inflow. Step 5: Calculate Incremental Investment Needs We first calculated the working capital investment rate, we did this by dividing the turnover with working capital per year from 2000 2009 as a percentage and then we used the average percentage as our working capital rate. This was then used to used to work out the capital required, we did by multiplying the turnover per forecasted year by the working capital rate (6.2%). Step 6: Calculate Free Cash Flow (FCF) FCF = After-tax inflow [fixed investment cash outflow + working capital Investment cash outflow] Free cash flow measures how much money a company generates after deducting maintenance. FCF is important as it allows the company to pursue opportunities that will enhance the shareholders value. Step 7: Calculate Present value of future cash flow in seven years Discount the future cash flow based on weighted average cost of capital PV of FCF for each year= FCF *Discount Factor Total Present value of Future cash flow for seven years = FCF year 1 / ( 1+WACC) + FCF year 2 1/(1 +WACC)^2 + FCF year 3 1/(1 +WACC)^3+ FCF year 4 1/(1 +WACC)^4+ FCF year 5 1/(1 +WACC)^5+ FCF year 6 1/ (1 +WACC)^6 = 2677003479.09 Step 8: Calculate Business Value First calculate PV of RV which equals to after tax inflow divided by WACC (calculate from step 1) then the result to be multiplied by the discount factor. Present value of Residual value can be calculated as the form of perpetuity. There is assumption made that the cash flow after seven years would be constant amount and forever, which the definition of perpetuity is and it can be calculated using formula. Business Value = Cumulative PV of FCF + PV of RV Therefore, total Business Value = 26770034791 + 69502852504= £ 96272887295 Step 9: Calculate Corporate Value The total corporate value is the sum of Business value and the Marketable securities like equities offered by the corporation. Marketable security is used as of year 2009  £ 872000000.00 Corporate Value = Business Value + Marketable Securities (investments)  £ 96272887295 +  £ 872000000.00 Therefore, Corporate value =  £97144887294.68 Step 10: Calculate Shareholder Value Shareholder Value = Corporate Value -Total Debt Total Debt = Long term + Short term Total Debt = 425000000 + 33000000 = 458000000 Corporate Value=  £97144887294.68 458000000 Total Shareholder Value =  £ 96686887295 Part A (2) ÃÆ' ¢-  The growth rate This was calculated based on the previous 9 years of annual revenue of the company. The annual Growth rate was worked out using the average percentage of change between 2 financial years, i.e. 2001-2000. The growth rate is 24.37% The growth rate is moderately high and that is largely to the fact that the company has expanded with its venture with Best Buy in the United States. We thought about not including the 2009 annual figures within our model but then decided using our judgment that it would be best to use them. The assumption here is that the mobile phone industry is expanding globally which are good future prospects for the sales of independent retailers of mobile phones and electronics. ÃÆ' ¢-  profit margin (pre tax) : We used the the profit margins from the annual reports dating back to 2000, and worked out the average of 2.18%. In my opinion this rate is a more realistic value even though the comp any is showing high sales growth. ÃÆ' ¢-  tax rate Here, is the assumption made that Taxes is depend on the Revenue and it is assumed that tax rate will be constant for the seven year period but the total amount of tax paid each year will vary based on the growth of revenue. we have assumed that the tax rate in countries other than UK averages 28% as well. This is because of lack of information on the international operations and taxation of  CWG  and because the majority of the business of  CWG  after the joint venture in the States is now in UK. Therefore we have not included any other taxes regarding taxation. ÃÆ' ¢-  fixed capital investment rate To calculate the fixed capital investment forecast the fixed capital in terms of plants , machinery fixed assets will be used for seven year time period. The expected future growth rate is calculated similarly from compounded annual growth rate in which annual growth is assum ed to constant but it can vary with in the year period. The assumption is that the organization fixed assets requirement will be similar in the past. ÃÆ' ¢-  Investment in working capital rate Here, is the assumption made that working capital requirement will depend on the Revenue and it is assumed that growth rate will be constant for seven year period but the total amount of investment in working capital each year will be varied based on the growth of revenue. Thus, to calculate the investment in working capital the growth rate used is the sales growth rate. Part A(3) Report to the director This report will be outlining the main constraints of the valuation model and how risk and uncertainty could be incorporated into the valuation process. The valuation module indicates that Carphone warehouse will be succeeding in the foreseeable future. However the future results are assumptions that we have calculated using formulas. Many factors can influence changes that are out of our control such as environmental, political, economical and technical factors. Risks may arise from any of those factors listed above. The awareness on shareholder value does not take into account societal needs. Shareholder value financially benefits only the owner of t he corporation; it does not provide a clear measure of social factors such as employment, environmental issues, or ethical business practices. As a result, a management decision can exploit shareholder value while adversely affecting third parties, including other companies. Shareholder value is a term that suggests that the decisive measure of a companys success is how well it enriches its shareholders. Shareholder Value Analysis is one of a number of techniques used as substitutes for traditional business measurements In May 2008 Carphone Warehouse merged into two commercial agreements with Best Buy, a leading US consumer electronics retailer, also launching Best Buy Mobile an independent retail format in the US. They also invested in a launch of a Geek Squad, a home technology support business, in the UK, to assist customers with their increasingly complex home technology needs. The key component of the valuation module is the estimation of future cash flows, it can be extremely difficult to complete accurately, and the risk of this can lead to incorrect or misleading figures forming the basis for strategic decisions. When calculating the figures we found difficulty as a group finding data as well as understanding the formulas to calculate the organizations shareholder values. It can be extrem ely difficult to estimate future cash flows accurately. The limitations we faced was dependent heavily on two key drivers, cost of capital and planning horizon as well as non cash measures such as operating profit margin due to the difficulties of finding information and the importance of having the information in the method to enable us to complete the formulas and accomplish affective results. We understood the importance when planning is to adopt the shareholder value as a significant financial objective and the implications and best approach for our chosen business Carphone Warehouse. Part B THE VALUATION METHODS NAV Long Term Liabilities  Long Term Debt -425 Group Loans (long t.) 0 Director Loans (long t.) 0 Hire Purch. Leas. (long t.) 0 Hire Purchase (long t.)  Leasing (long t.)  Other Long Term Loans -425 Total Other Long Term Liab.  Accruals Def. Inc. (l. t.)  Other Long Term Liab.  Provisions for Other Liab.  Deferred Tax  Other Provisions  Pension Liabilities  Balance sheet Minorities  Long Term Liabilities -425   Total Assets less Liabilities 1,116 Shareholders Funds  Issued Capital 1 Ordinary Shares  Preference Shares  Other Shares  Total Reserves 1,115 Share Premium Account 476 Revaluation Reserves 0 Profit (Loss) Account 690 Other Reserves -51 Shareholders Funds 1,116 Taking Carphone Warehouse 2009 accounts the NAV per share is: 1116/914108246= 1.22p per share Net asset value is a term used to describe the value of an entitys assets less the value of its liabilities. In the case of no-load funds Carphone Warehouses NAV, market price, and offering price are the entire matching figure, which the public pays to buy shares, offer prices are quoted after adding the sales charge to the net asset value. NAV is calculated by most funds after the close of the exchanges each day by taking the closing market value of all securities owned plus all other assets such as cash, subtracting all liabilities, and then dividing the result by the total number of shares outstanding. The number of shares outstanding can vary each day depending on the number of purchases and redemptions. This is not very successful and commonly used approach as it has many drawbacks and limitation. It does not take into account of time value of money. It also not concerned about the capital structure of firm has. Price earnings ratio P/E Ratio = Market Price EPS P/E ratio = 194.40p/ 347million/914108246= 194.40/0.3796= 512.11 times The P/E ratio of a stock is a measure of the price paid for a share relative to the annual net income or profit earned by the firm per share. The P/E is usually based on earnings from the last four quarters; the P/E is more than a measure of Carphone Warehouses past performance. It also takes into account market expectations for  a companys  growth. Carphone warehouse stock prices reflect what investors think a company will be worth. Future growth is already accounted for in the stock price. As a result, a better way of interpreting the P/E ratio is as a reflection of the markets optimism concerning a companys growth prospects. If a company has a P/E higher than the market or industry average, this means that the market is expecting big things over the next few months or years. A company with a high P/E ratio will eventually have to live up to the high ra ting by considerably increasing its earnings, or the stock price will need to fall. Discounted Cash Flow Basis Free cash flows: Revenues less operating costs plus depreciation less investment expenditure Revenue =347 million operating costs= -771million depreciation= 54 million investment expenditure= 872 million 347m 771m + 54m 872m = 7560000 P/E is short for the ratio of a companys share price to its per-share earnings. As the name implies, to calculate the P/E, you simply take the current stock price of a company and divide by its earnings per share Discounted Cash Flow is a cash flow summary  adjusted to reflect the time value of money.  DCF is an important factor to Carphone Warehouse when  evaluating or comparing investments, proposed actions,  or purchases, Other things being equal, especially in 2009 when Carphone Warehouse emerged with a company called best way in America. The  action or investment with the larger DCF is the better decision. When  discounted cash flow events in a cash flow stream are added together, the result is called the Net Present Value.